Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Utah Jazz | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 62.7% | 37.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 56.2% | 43.8% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.6% | 36.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.7% | 36.3% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.2% | 50.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Utah Jazz +7 (104-97). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 43 | 13-19 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 25 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 37 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 13 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 29 | 5-11 | 1-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 26 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 4 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 27 | 4-10 | 2-6 | 3-3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Ray Allen | 23 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 22 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
| Norris Cole | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Mike Miller | 4 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
Utah Jazz
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Jefferson * | 37 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 20 | - |
| Paul Millsap * | 32 | 4-14 | 0-0 | 9-10 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Marvin Williams * | 32 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Jamaal Tinsley * | 30 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Randy Foye * | 21 | 3-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Gordon Hayward | 26 | 8-13 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 13 | - |
| Derrick Favors | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| DeMarre Carroll | 15 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 11 | - |
| Earl Watson | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | - |
| Alec Burks | 8 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Enes Freedom | 7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
* = starter