Model Predictions
| Model | Minnesota Timberwolves | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.0% | 55.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 60.3% | 39.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 47.5% | 52.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 55.3% | 44.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 60.6% | 39.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.9% | 50.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +15 (113-98). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Minnesota Timberwolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Cunningham * | 38 | 6-18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | -1 | - |
| Nikola Pekovic * | 32 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 4-10 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 21 | - |
| Andrei Kirilenko * | 31 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 14 | - |
| Luke Ridnour * | 21 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -1 | - |
| Alexey Shved * | 21 | 1-7 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Ricky Rubio | 26 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 | - |
| J.J. Barea | 26 | 6-13 | 4-7 | 5-5 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | - |
| Derrick Williams | 25 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Greg Stiemsma | 15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 38 | 8-11 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 26 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 35 | 7-11 | 1-1 | 8-8 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 23 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki * | 33 | 5-12 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 26 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 15 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Elton Brand | 29 | 10-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 17 | - |
| Vince Carter | 22 | 3-5 | 1-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 13 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Dahntay Jones | 10 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Mike James | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
* = starter