Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Memphis Grizzlies | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 41.8% | 58.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.6% | 43.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Memphis Grizzlies +3 (101-98). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker * | 42 | 10-21 | 3-3 | 7-7 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 11 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 38 | 5-14 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 15 | - |
| Kawhi Leonard * | 38 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 30 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 18 | - |
| Danny Green * | 18 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 35 | 5-11 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Boris Diaw | 25 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Stephen Jackson | 19 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Gary Neal | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Patty Mills | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Matt Bonner | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Gay * | 42 | 10-20 | 1-4 | 2-5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 11 | - |
| Zach Randolph * | 42 | 8-15 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Mike Conley * | 40 | 5-15 | 1-4 | 10-10 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 11 | - |
| Tony Allen * | 39 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Marc Gasol * | 37 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Jerryd Bayless | 24 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Darrell Arthur | 22 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 15 | - |
| Wayne Ellington | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Marreese Speights | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter