Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Portland Trail Blazers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 63.6% | 36.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 73.6% | 26.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 60.9% | 39.1% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 60.5% | 39.5% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 74.9% | 25.1% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 74.9% | 25.1% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 58.3% | 41.7% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Portland Trail Blazers +2 (92-90). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 42 | 6-16 | 1-5 | 2-5 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 17 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 39 | 13-18 | 0-2 | 3-5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 20 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 35 | 6-18 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 6 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 26 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 18 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Ray Allen | 29 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Mike Miller | 24 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | - |
| Norris Cole | 12 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | - |
Portland Trail Blazers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMarcus Aldridge * | 42 | 6-19 | 0-0 | 8-10 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 16 | - |
| Nicolas Batum * | 42 | 8-15 | 3-9 | 9-11 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 26 | - |
| Damian Lillard * | 41 | 4-11 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Wesley Matthews * | 40 | 7-18 | 3-8 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 7 | - |
| JJ Hickson * | 34 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Ronnie Price | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Sasha Pavlovic | 10 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Jared Jeffries | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Joel Freeland | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Luke Babbitt | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter