Model Predictions
| Model | Utah Jazz | Denver Nuggets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 40.0% | 60.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 41.7% | 58.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 37.0% | 63.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 47.1% | 52.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 41.5% | 58.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 41.5% | 58.5% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 35.7% | 64.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Denver Nuggets +19 (110-91). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Utah Jazz
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Millsap * | 32 | 4-12 | 0-1 | 7-9 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Al Jefferson * | 32 | 4-13 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Marvin Williams * | 31 | 4-10 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Randy Foye * | 26 | 2-9 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Jamaal Tinsley * | 21 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 11 | - |
| Derrick Favors | 25 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Gordon Hayward | 18 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 5 | - |
| Earl Watson | 17 | 3-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Alec Burks | 16 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 7 | - |
| DeMarre Carroll | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Jeremy Evans | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Iguodala * | 31 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 8-11 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 31 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 16 | - |
| Danilo Gallinari * | 31 | 7-11 | 1-2 | 11-12 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 20 | - |
| Kosta Koufos * | 29 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | - |
| Ty Lawson * | 24 | 6-12 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 6 | - |
| JaVale McGee | 22 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 | - |
| Andre Miller | 20 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Corey Brewer | 18 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Evan Fournier | 6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Timofey Mozgov | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Jordan Hamilton | 6 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Julyan Stone | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Anthony Randolph | 5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | - |
* = starter