Model Predictions
| Model | Chicago Bulls | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.9% | 83.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.9% | 70.1% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 31.1% | 68.9% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 44.8% | 55.2% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 32.7% | 67.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -7 (89-96). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Chicago Bulls
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luol Deng * | 43 | 2-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Carlos Boozer * | 42 | 12-17 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 21 | - |
| Joakim Noah * | 36 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 16 | - |
| Kirk Hinrich * | 29 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | - |
| Richard Hamilton * | 17 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 | - |
| Nate Robinson | 18 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 8 | - |
| Marco Belinelli | 17 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -2 | - |
| Taj Gibson | 17 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Jimmy Butler III | 17 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 41 | 8-14 | 1-5 | 13-16 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 30 | 23 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 37 | 5-12 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 32 | 7-11 | 1-1 | 7-9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 17 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 25 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 20 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Shane Battier | 25 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - |
| Ray Allen | 23 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Norris Cole | 15 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Mike Miller | 10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter