Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 8.8% | 91.2% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 19.3% | 80.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.8% | 76.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.3% | 79.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.3% | 74.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +10 (119-109). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 45 | 12-21 | 4-10 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 14 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 40 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 36 | 5-16 | 1-8 | 4-4 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 32 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 28 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 16 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 29 | 7-15 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 9 | - |
| Dahntay Jones | 21 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Elton Brand | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 13 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Chris Douglas-Roberts | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Bernard James | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade * | 44 | 9-21 | 1-3 | 8-9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 24 | - |
| LeBron James * | 42 | 11-20 | 1-3 | 9-11 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 32 | 33 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 39 | 7-10 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 14 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 26 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 20 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Shane Battier | 27 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Ray Allen | 27 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 13 | - |
| Norris Cole | 16 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -4 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Mike Miller | 7 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | - |
| Josh Harrellson | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter