Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Washington Wizards | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 77.8% | 22.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 51.8% | 48.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 58.6% | 41.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.9% | 36.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.9% | 36.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 55.0% | 45.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Washington Wizards -9 (94-103). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison * | 38 | 4-13 | 1-4 | 6-7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 12 | - |
| O.J. Mayo * | 35 | 6-10 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 13 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 30 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 21 | - |
| Vince Carter * | 29 | 9-14 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 14 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 26 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Elton Brand | 21 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 16 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Dahntay Jones | 14 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 9 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Chris Douglas-Roberts | 7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
Washington Wizards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Beal * | 35 | 7-16 | 4-7 | 4-7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 11 | - |
| Martell Webster * | 30 | 4-11 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Emeka Okafor * | 26 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 14 | - |
| Nene Hilario * | 25 | 2-10 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Garrett Temple * | 23 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Shelvin Mack | 24 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | - |
| Kevin Seraphin | 24 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Jordan Crawford | 23 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 3 | - |
| Jan Vesely | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Cartier Martin | 9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | - |
* = starter