Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.9% | 81.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 30.4% | 69.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 34.2% | 65.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 34.2% | 65.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.4% | 68.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +6 (122-116). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chandler Parsons * | 43 | 11-15 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 19 | - |
| James Harden * | 41 | 10-22 | 3-4 | 10-13 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 33 | 20 | - |
| Jeremy Lin * | 36 | 9-16 | 1-5 | 2-4 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 16 | - |
| Marcus Morris Sr. * | 30 | 2-9 | 1-7 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Omer Asik * | 24 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | - |
| Toney Douglas | 28 | 5-12 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Cole Aldrich | 17 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Daequan Cook | 12 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Greg Smith | 6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker * | 38 | 11-19 | 0-0 | 9-10 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 26 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 34 | 13-20 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 14 | - |
| Danny Green * | 27 | 5-8 | 5-7 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 13 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 26 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 14 | - |
| Kawhi Leonard * | 26 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Stephen Jackson | 27 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 23 | 7-12 | 5-9 | 4-4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 14 | - |
| Boris Diaw | 20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Patty Mills | 11 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Nando De Colo | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | - |
| DeJuan Blair | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter