Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Nuggets | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 53.5% | 46.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 67.7% | 32.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 57.6% | 42.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 69.2% | 30.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 69.3% | 30.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.4% | 42.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -21 (85-106). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Denver Nuggets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Lawson * | 36 | 5-14 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 2 | - |
| Andre Iguodala * | 34 | 7-12 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 20 | - |
| Danilo Gallinari * | 34 | 14-23 | 7-11 | 4-4 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 39 | 26 | - |
| Kenneth Faried * | 33 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 19 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 21 | - |
| Kosta Koufos * | 25 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Andre Miller | 25 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 11 | - |
| Corey Brewer | 21 | 0-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | - |
| JaVale McGee | 16 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Jordan Hamilton | 7 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Evan Fournier | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Anthony Randolph | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 37 | 6-13 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 6 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 32 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 27 | 3-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 19 | 6-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 9 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Vince Carter | 21 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 20 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 12 | - |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 18 | 2-10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -2 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 14 | 1-7 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | - |
| Chris Douglas-Roberts | 14 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Elton Brand | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Dominique Jones | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | - |
* = starter