Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Detroit Pistons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 81.3% | 18.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 88.0% | 12.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 62.8% | 37.2% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 61.3% | 38.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 77.5% | 22.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 77.5% | 22.5% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 60.5% | 39.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Detroit Pistons +10 (109-99). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 44 | 15-22 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 28 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 39 | 11-17 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 20 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 28 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Mike Miller * | 23 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 20 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Ray Allen | 28 | 3-13 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -1 | - |
| Shane Battier | 27 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Norris Cole | 19 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tayshaun Prince * | 36 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Kyle Singler * | 31 | 5-11 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Greg Monroe * | 27 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Brandon Knight * | 20 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | - |
| Jason Maxiell * | 19 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | - |
| Austin Daye | 28 | 4-5 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 13 | - |
| Will Bynum | 27 | 10-16 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 20 | - |
| Charlie Villanueva | 25 | 7-10 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Andre Drummond | 23 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | - |
* = starter