Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 69.2% | 30.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 74.8% | 25.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 58.8% | 41.2% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 56.7% | 43.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 71.2% | 28.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 71.2% | 28.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks -15 (95-110). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bosh * | 34 | 8-14 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 17 | - |
| LeBron James * | 30 | 9-13 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 22 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 27 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 26 | 7-13 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | - |
| Shane Battier | 24 | 4-9 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Norris Cole | 23 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Ray Allen | 18 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Mike Miller | 18 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Rashard Lewis | 3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Dexter Pittman | 3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| James Jones | 3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 30 | 3-14 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 28 | 5-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Darren Collison * | 26 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 10 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 18 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -2 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 16 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 5-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Dominique Jones | 26 | 2-9 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 25 | 5-13 | 2-8 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Vince Carter | 24 | 4-9 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 10 | - |
| Bernard James | 21 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 20 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
* = starter