Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Oklahoma City Thunder | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 33.2% | 66.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.5% | 50.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.3% | 55.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.7% | 51.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 46.4% | 53.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.3% | 53.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.4% | 55.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Oklahoma City Thunder +14 (107-93). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Neal * | 28 | 3-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 25 | 4-11 | 0-1 | 6-7 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 23 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 21 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Danny Green * | 19 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | - |
| Boris Diaw | 23 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Nando De Colo | 23 | 6-9 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Stephen Jackson | 19 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | - |
| James Anderson | 16 | 3-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | - |
| DeJuan Blair | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | - |
| Patty Mills | 12 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Matt Bonner | 11 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
Oklahoma City Thunder
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant * | 39 | 6-13 | 0-2 | 7-7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 16 | - |
| Serge Ibaka * | 38 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 25 | 27 | - |
| Russell Westbrook * | 36 | 6-18 | 1-2 | 9-11 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 21 | - |
| Thabo Sefolosha * | 24 | 1-8 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Kendrick Perkins * | 21 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Kevin Martin | 32 | 7-10 | 3-5 | 3-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 11 | - |
| Nick Collison | 24 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 13 | - |
| Eric Maynor | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Hasheem Thabeet | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Jeremy Lamb | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Reggie Jackson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| DeAndre Liggins | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter