Model Predictions
| Model | Boston Celtics | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.7% | 82.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.2% | 70.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 26.3% | 73.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.1% | 56.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.4% | 69.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 25.5% | 74.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +15 (103-88). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Boston Celtics
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo * | 34 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Kevin Garnett * | 30 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 12 | - |
| Courtney Lee * | 30 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Paul Pierce * | 29 | 7-13 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Brandon Bass * | 18 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Jeff Green | 31 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | - |
| Jason Terry | 31 | 6-13 | 4-9 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 9 | - |
| Chris Wilcox | 13 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Jared Sullinger | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Leandro Barbosa | 9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker * | 36 | 8-14 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 22 | - |
| Danny Green * | 34 | 4-10 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Gary Neal * | 31 | 7-13 | 3-6 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 13 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 31 | 2-13 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 28 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 17 | - |
| Boris Diaw | 21 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Nando De Colo | 20 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Matt Bonner | 14 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Patty Mills | 11 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - |
| James Anderson | 5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
* = starter