Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Minnesota Timberwolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 38.7% | 61.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 48.5% | 51.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 42.3% | 57.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 39.5% | 60.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Minnesota Timberwolves +8 (114-106). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 43 | 7-16 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 14 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 34 | 7-14 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 16 | - |
| Derek Fisher * | 28 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 7-7 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 12 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 25 | 5-12 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Darren Collison | 34 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Elton Brand | 26 | 7-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Vince Carter | 16 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 12 | - |
| Dominique Jones | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 12 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 8 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Minnesota Timberwolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexey Shved * | 44 | 6-12 | 3-5 | 3-6 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Nikola Pekovic * | 42 | 10-21 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 11 | - |
| Andrei Kirilenko * | 40 | 4-10 | 0-3 | 6-7 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 19 | - |
| Luke Ridnour * | 40 | 7-17 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 7 | - |
| Dante Cunningham * | 25 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | - |
| J.J. Barea | 23 | 5-12 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 9 | - |
| Ricky Rubio | 18 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 6-8 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 18 | - |
| Derrick Williams | 18 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Greg Stiemsma | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
* = starter