Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Houston Rockets | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 26.9% | 73.1% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 43.6% | 56.4% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 34.9% | 65.1% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 45.7% | 54.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 33.9% | 66.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Houston Rockets -7 (109-116). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 42 | 15-26 | 6-9 | 4-4 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 40 | 25 | - |
| Brandan Wright * | 29 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 12 | - |
| Derek Fisher * | 29 | 1-5 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 20 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 18 | 9-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 12 | - |
| Darren Collison | 31 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 6-6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Vince Carter | 21 | 5-12 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 15 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Elton Brand | 14 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Dominique Jones | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Bernard James | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden * | 45 | 10-17 | 4-9 | 15-16 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 39 | 34 | - |
| Chandler Parsons * | 41 | 6-17 | 1-6 | 5-6 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 17 | - |
| Patrick Patterson * | 29 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Omer Asik * | 19 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Jeremy Lin * | 18 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Carlos Delfino | 35 | 3-11 | 2-10 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | - |
| Toney Douglas | 34 | 4-9 | 3-6 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 10 | - |
| Cole Aldrich | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Greg Smith | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter