Model Predictions
| Model | Houston Rockets | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 12.9% | 87.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 23.0% | 77.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 28.0% | 72.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 32.5% | 67.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.1% | 69.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +22 (114-92). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Houston Rockets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden * | 34 | 10-16 | 3-6 | 6-7 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 22 | - |
| Patrick Patterson * | 32 | 5-14 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Jeremy Lin * | 26 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | - |
| Chandler Parsons * | 24 | 3-10 | 0-4 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -4 | - |
| Omer Asik * | 24 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -5 | - |
| Toney Douglas | 21 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Carlos Delfino | 17 | 3-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Marcus Morris Sr. | 17 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Greg Smith | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Daequan Cook | 11 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | - |
| Cole Aldrich | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Terrence Jones | 7 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Donatas Motiejunas | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Neal * | 25 | 6-11 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 4 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 25 | 7-9 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 16 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 23 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 15 | - |
| DeJuan Blair * | 20 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | - |
| Danny Green * | 17 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Nando De Colo | 20 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 19 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Tiago Splitter | 19 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 15 | - |
| Patty Mills | 18 | 5-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 6 | - |
| Boris Diaw | 16 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | - |
| James Anderson | 14 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Matt Bonner | 9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
| Cory Joseph | 8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | - |
* = starter