Model Predictions
| Model | Dallas Mavericks | Phoenix Suns | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 42.7% | 57.3% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 51.6% | 48.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Phoenix Suns -3 (94-97). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 40 | 9-17 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 10 | - |
| Elton Brand * | 27 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 23 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Derek Fisher * | 21 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Dahntay Jones * | 15 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Vince Carter | 27 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | - |
| Darren Collison | 26 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 10-12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 15 | - |
| Brandan Wright | 23 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Chris Kaman | 20 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 11 | - |
| Jae Crowder | 14 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Phoenix Suns
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic * | 40 | 5-14 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 9 | - |
| Markieff Morris * | 34 | 6-12 | 1-2 | 2-3 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 25 | - |
| Shannon Brown * | 28 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Marcin Gortat * | 25 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Michael Beasley * | 21 | 3-12 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -3 | - |
| Luis Scola | 24 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 16 | - |
| Jared Dudley | 20 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | - |
| Sebastian Telfair | 19 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | - |
| P.J. Tucker | 14 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | - |
| Jermaine O'Neal | 10 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | - |
* = starter