Model Predictions
| Model | New York Knicks | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 21.6% | 78.4% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.2% | 60.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 41.0% | 59.0% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 51.3% | 48.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.9% | 49.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.9% | 49.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Miami Heat -20 (92-112). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
New York Knicks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raymond Felton * | 35 | 10-20 | 6-10 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 17 | - |
| Tyson Chandler * | 31 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 15 | - |
| Jason Kidd * | 31 | 4-12 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Ronnie Brewer * | 27 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Kurt Thomas * | 11 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Steve Novak | 34 | 7-13 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 9 | - |
| JR Smith | 22 | 4-15 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 8 | - |
| James White | 16 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | - |
| Rasheed Wallace | 14 | 4-13 | 0-6 | 4-6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 7 | - |
| Pablo Prigioni | 13 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | - |
| Chris Copeland | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 38 | 11-20 | 3-5 | 6-9 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 31 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 31 | 3-13 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 29 | 3-12 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Udonis Haslem * | 21 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 16 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | - |
| Ray Allen | 33 | 4-8 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Mike Miller | 25 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | - |
| Norris Cole | 15 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 13 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Shane Battier | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| James Jones | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Terrel Harris | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter