Model Predictions
| Model | Orlando Magic | Utah Jazz | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.6% | 82.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 30.5% | 69.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 40.4% | 59.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.2% | 68.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Utah Jazz +6 (87-81). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameer Nelson * | 39 | 7-16 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 10 | - |
| Glen Davis * | 38 | 7-16 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Nikola Vučević * | 38 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 | - |
| Arron Afflalo * | 36 | 7-12 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Maurice Harkless * | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| JJ Redick | 35 | 5-12 | 0-5 | 4-5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 4 | - |
| Gustavo Ayon | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - |
| E'Twaun Moore | 8 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
| Andrew Nicholson | 8 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Josh McRoberts | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| DeQuan Jones | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Utah Jazz
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Millsap * | 38 | 8-14 | 0-1 | 6-9 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 17 | - |
| Al Jefferson * | 34 | 13-20 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 28 | - |
| Mo Williams * | 32 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Randy Foye * | 29 | 1-7 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | - |
| Marvin Williams * | 23 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Gordon Hayward | 23 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| DeMarre Carroll | 19 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Enes Freedom | 16 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Earl Watson | 15 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Jeremy Evans | 6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter