Model Predictions
| Model | Miami Heat | Washington Wizards | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 79.1% | 20.9% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 93.0% | 7.0% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 71.8% | 28.2% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 66.6% | 33.4% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 83.1% | 16.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 83.2% | 16.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 73.4% | 26.6% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Washington Wizards +4 (105-101). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 42 | 12-24 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 28 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 35 | 8-11 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 24 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 34 | 9-19 | 0-1 | 6-7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 11 | - |
| Rashard Lewis * | 14 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Ray Allen | 34 | 4-12 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | -1 | - |
| Mike Miller | 29 | 4-10 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | - |
| Udonis Haslem | 17 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Terrel Harris | 11 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 8 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | - |
Washington Wizards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Singleton * | 35 | 2-7 | 0-1 | 5-8 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 14 | - |
| AJ Price * | 23 | 5-7 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 | - |
| Trevor Ariza * | 16 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | - |
| Bradley Beal * | 16 | 5-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Emeka Okafor * | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | - |
| Jordan Crawford | 31 | 7-16 | 3-6 | 5-6 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 15 | - |
| Kevin Seraphin | 31 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 14 | - |
| Martell Webster | 31 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 5-5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 7 | - |
| Shaun Livingston | 24 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | - |
| Nene Hilario | 16 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 10 | - |
* = starter