Model Predictions
| Model | Detroit Pistons | Dallas Mavericks | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 42.5% | 57.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 53.1% | 46.9% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.9% | 55.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Dallas Mavericks +15 (92-77). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Detroit Pistons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tayshaun Prince * | 36 | 5-14 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 4 | - |
| Jason Maxiell * | 36 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 16 | - |
| Brandon Knight * | 34 | 6-14 | 2-6 | 6-7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 12 | - |
| Kyle Singler * | 33 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 8 | - |
| Greg Monroe * | 32 | 4-17 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Rodney Stuckey | 28 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | - |
| Charlie Villanueva | 14 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Andre Drummond | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | - |
| Corey Maggette | 11 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -2 | - |
Dallas Mavericks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.J. Mayo * | 35 | 10-21 | 6-9 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 14 | - |
| Shawn Marion * | 30 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 14 | - |
| Jae Crowder * | 30 | 1-8 | 0-4 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Derek Fisher * | 24 | 1-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -3 | - |
| Chris Kaman * | 18 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Elton Brand | 27 | 8-12 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 23 | - |
| Darren Collison | 26 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | - |
| Vince Carter | 21 | 4-6 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 12 | - |
| Bernard James | 17 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Dahntay Jones | 6 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | - |
* = starter