Model Predictions
| Model | Memphis Grizzlies | San Antonio Spurs | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 30.7% | 69.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.2% | 46.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 41.9% | 58.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.9% | 49.1% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 54.8% | 45.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 44.6% | 55.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: San Antonio Spurs +4 (99-95). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Memphis Grizzlies
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Gay * | 46 | 7-18 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 8 | - |
| Mike Conley * | 41 | 5-13 | 2-3 | 6-7 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 19 | - |
| Zach Randolph * | 39 | 5-21 | 0-0 | 7-7 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 10 | - |
| Marc Gasol * | 36 | 10-16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 15 | - |
| Wayne Ellington * | 21 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Quincy Pondexter | 28 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | - |
| Jerryd Bayless | 20 | 1-8 | 0-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Marreese Speights | 15 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Darrell Arthur | 14 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 2 | - |
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Parker * | 43 | 11-20 | 0-1 | 8-10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 30 | 20 | - |
| Gary Neal * | 40 | 4-16 | 3-10 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 40 | 11-17 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 27 | 27 | - |
| Danny Green * | 19 | 0-7 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| DeJuan Blair * | 17 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 35 | 4-15 | 1-7 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 7 | - |
| Tiago Splitter | 19 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | - |
| Matt Bonner | 19 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | - |
| Boris Diaw | 14 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | - |
| Patty Mills | 8 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Nando De Colo | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - |
| James Anderson | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter