Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 45.3% | 54.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.1% | 58.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 50.2% | 49.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 41.6% | 58.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +5 (105-100). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boris Diaw * | 38 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Nando De Colo * | 33 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 5-6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 14 | - |
| Matt Bonner * | 29 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 14 | - |
| Tiago Splitter * | 29 | 7-12 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 16 | - |
| Patty Mills * | 23 | 3-11 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 | -3 | - |
| Gary Neal | 32 | 7-20 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 7 | - |
| James Anderson | 19 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 4-5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 15 | - |
| DeJuan Blair | 18 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Cory Joseph | 14 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 39 | 9-16 | 2-5 | 3-6 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 23 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 36 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 18 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 32 | 7-17 | 0-0 | 5-5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 12 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 27 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | - |
| Rashard Lewis * | 20 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | - |
| Ray Allen | 27 | 7-15 | 1-3 | 5-5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 7 | - |
| Norris Cole | 19 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Udonis Haslem | 17 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Mike Miller | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter