Model Predictions
| Model | San Antonio Spurs | Orlando Magic | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 73.6% | 26.4% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 81.3% | 18.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 66.9% | 33.1% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 78.9% | 21.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 78.9% | 21.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 64.9% | 35.1% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Orlando Magic -21 (89-110). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Antonio Spurs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Neal * | 32 | 8-16 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 9 | - |
| Danny Green * | 31 | 3-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 6 | - |
| Tony Parker * | 29 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 11 | - |
| Tim Duncan * | 27 | 7-11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 14 | - |
| DeJuan Blair * | 23 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | - |
| Manu Ginobili | 23 | 6-9 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 20 | - |
| Boris Diaw | 21 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | - |
| Tiago Splitter | 16 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 10 | - |
| Nando De Colo | 15 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Cory Joseph | 6 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | - |
| Matt Bonner | 6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
| James Anderson | 4 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | - |
Orlando Magic
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arron Afflalo * | 29 | 8-16 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 5 | - |
| Jameer Nelson * | 28 | 7-14 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Glen Davis * | 27 | 6-16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2 | - |
| Maurice Harkless * | 21 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Nikola Vučević * | 15 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - |
| E'Twaun Moore | 22 | 5-13 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0 | - |
| JJ Redick | 22 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 1 | - |
| DeQuan Jones | 18 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Andrew Nicholson | 13 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | - |
| Josh McRoberts | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Gustavo Ayon | 12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | - |
| Kyle O'Quinn | 8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | - |
| Ish Smith | 6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
* = starter