Model Predictions
| Model | Cleveland Cavaliers | Miami Heat | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 5.7% | 94.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 12.8% | 87.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 17.7% | 82.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 33.7% | 66.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.2% | 79.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.1% | 79.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 21.7% | 78.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Miami Heat +2 (110-108). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Cleveland Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Waiters * | 37 | 5-14 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | - |
| Anderson Varejao * | 35 | 2-9 | 0-1 | 6-7 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 23 | - |
| Jeremy Pargo * | 33 | 4-13 | 2-4 | 6-8 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 8 | - |
| Alonzo Gee * | 28 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | - |
| Tristan Thompson * | 22 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 11 | - |
| Daniel Gibson | 28 | 4-9 | 2-7 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 7 | - |
| Tyler Zeller | 21 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | - |
| CJ Miles | 17 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | - |
| Omri Casspi | 15 | 4-6 | 4-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 12 | - |
Miami Heat
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James * | 39 | 10-16 | 2-5 | 8-9 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 19 | - |
| Chris Bosh * | 36 | 6-11 | 0-0 | 11-13 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 20 | - |
| Dwyane Wade * | 34 | 6-15 | 0-0 | 6-10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 13 | - |
| Mario Chalmers * | 32 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | - |
| Shane Battier * | 21 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | - |
| Ray Allen | 22 | 6-11 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 11 | - |
| Udonis Haslem | 19 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Mike Miller | 14 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | - |
| Norris Cole | 13 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| Joel Anthony | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter