Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | Louisville Cardinals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.4% | 77.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 38.3% | 61.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.7% | 75.3% | +6.1 | ✓ (15.9 off) |
| Pythagorean | 45.2% | 54.8% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 26.2% | 73.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 25.8% | 74.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.8% | 63.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Louisville Cardinals +22 (85-63). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Plumlee * | 39 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 18 | - |
| Seth Curry * | 39 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 4-7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 5 | - |
| Quinn Cook * | 36 | 3-11 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | - |
| Rasheed Sulaimon * | 26 | 1-10 | 0-4 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -2 | - |
| Ryan Kelly * | 24 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | - |
| Tyler Thornton | 17 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | - |
| Josh Hairston | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | - |
| Amile Jefferson | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Alex Murphy | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| M. Plumlee | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
Louisville Cardinals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Smith * | 34 | 7-14 | 0-4 | 9-12 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 12 | - |
| P. Siva * | 33 | 6-10 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 14 | - |
| G. Dieng * | 25 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 2-8 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 23 | - |
| C. Behanan * | 25 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | - |
| W. Blackshear * | 21 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | - |
| L. Hancock | 20 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 5-5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 | - |
| M. Harrell | 15 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| S. Van Treese | 15 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | - |
| T. Henderson | 7 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | - |
| K. Ware | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | - |
* = starter