Model Predictions
| Model | Valparaiso Beacons | Michigan State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 22.0% | 78.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.2% | 72.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 9.2% | 90.8% | +12.6 | ✓ (1.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 46.8% | 53.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.7% | 95.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 4.3% | 95.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.0% | 74.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Michigan State Spartans +11 (65-54). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Valparaiso Beacons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Buggs * | 35 | 7-11 | 0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 8 | - |
| Matt Kenney * | 34 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Will Bogan * | 26 | 0-3 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Kevin Van Wijk * | 21 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Ben Boggs * | 11 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 12 | - |
| Ryan Broekhoff | 37 | 2-11 | 1-9 | 3-3 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Bobby Capobianco | 21 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | - |
| LaVonte Dority | 12 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Jordan Coleman | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Vashil Fernandez | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Wetzel | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Dan Chapman | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Gary Harris * | 32 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | - |
| Keith Appling * | 32 | 6-12 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 10 | - |
| Branden Dawson * | 31 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | - |
| Derrick Nix * | 28 | 10-17 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 22 | - |
| Adreian Payne * | 27 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 3 | - |
| Travis Trice | 21 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -2 | - |
| Denzel Valentine | 15 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | - |
| Matt Costello | 9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Alex Gauna | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Russell Byrd | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter