Model Predictions
| Model | Cal Poly Mustangs | Cal State Northridge Matadors | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 57.1% | 42.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.5% | 43.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 51.4% | 48.6% | -0.3 | ✓ (19.7 off) |
| Pythagorean | 50.1% | 49.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 61.9% | 38.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 61.8% | 38.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Cal State Northridge Matadors -20 (61-81). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Cal Poly Mustangs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Eversley * | 34 | 8-12 | 3-3 | 4-6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 18 | - |
| Dylan Royer * | 31 | 8-12 | 7-8 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 14 | - |
| Brian Bennett * | 25 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | - |
| Joel Awich * | 24 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Drake U'u * | 18 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | - |
| Jamal Johnson | 30 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 16 | - |
| Chris O'Brien | 24 | 2-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Reese Morgan | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Zach Gordon | 6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
Cal State Northridge Matadors
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Hicks * | 38 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 4-6 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 12 | - |
| Josh Greene * | 34 | 6-13 | 4-8 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 4 | - |
| Tre Hale-Edmerson * | 32 | 1-6 | 0-1 | 7-8 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 16 | - |
| Stephen Maxwell * | 25 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 12 | - |
| Allan Guei | 24 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | - |
| Trevone Williams | 19 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -3 | - |
| Landon Drew | 16 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| Donovan Johnson | 4 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Lonnie Watson | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Ilya Ilyayev | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter