Model Predictions
| Model | Duke Blue Devils | Virginia Cavaliers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 57.0% | 43.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 53.7% | 46.3% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 59.5% | 40.5% | -2.1 | ✗ (7.1 off) |
| Pythagorean | 58.5% | 41.5% | - | ✗ |
| Efficiency | 26.6% | 73.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 88.7% | 11.3% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 88.5% | 11.5% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Virginia Cavaliers +5 (73-68). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Plumlee * | 40 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | - |
| R. Sulaimon * | 36 | 2-10 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -3 | - |
| S. Curry * | 35 | 7-14 | 4-8 | 10-12 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 19 | - |
| Q. Cook * | 34 | 8-17 | 4-9 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 8 | - |
| J. Hairston * | 15 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
| T. Thornton | 18 | 0-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| A. Jefferson | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | - |
| A. Murphy | 9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
Virginia Cavaliers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Jesperson * | 36 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | - |
| J. Evans * | 36 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | - |
| A. Mitchell * | 35 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 9-10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 | - |
| J. Harris * | 35 | 12-20 | 2-5 | 10-12 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 27 | - |
| J. Anderson * | 30 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | - |
| E. Nolte | 16 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - |
| M. Tobey | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| T. Jones | 4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | - |
| T. Barnette | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - |
* = starter