Model Predictions
| Model | North Carolina Tar Heels | Duke Blue Devils | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 16.5% | 83.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 27.6% | 72.4% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 24.2% | 75.8% | +6.3 | ✓ (1.3 off) |
| Pythagorean | 39.4% | 60.6% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 5.5% | 94.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 9.9% | 90.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 10.1% | 89.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Duke Blue Devils +5 (73-68). Predictions use season-end ratings.
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bullock * | 36 | 5-10 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 13 | - |
| J. McAdoo * | 34 | 4-12 | 0-0 | 1-5 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | - |
| P.J. Hairston * | 34 | 8-18 | 1-7 | 6-8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 23 | 16 | - |
| Dexter Strickland * | 34 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | - |
| Marcus Paige * | 30 | 2-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - |
| Leslie McDonald | 20 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | - |
| Brice Johnson | 4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | - |
| Jackson Simmons | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| J.P. Tokoto | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - |
| Desmond Hubert | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Duke Blue Devils
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasheed Sulaimon * | 38 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 5 | - |
| Quinn Cook * | 37 | 6-12 | 0-3 | 6-6 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 12 | - |
| M. Plumlee * | 35 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 14 | - |
| Seth Curry * | 29 | 3-10 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | - |
| Josh Hairston * | 9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | - |
| Tyler Thornton | 28 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 | - |
| Amile Jefferson | 20 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | - |
| Alex Murphy | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Plumlee | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter