Model Predictions
| Model | Evansville Purple Aces | Missouri State Bears | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 48.0% | 52.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 68.3% | 31.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 57.2% | 42.8% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 69.4% | 30.6% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 84.5% | 15.5% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 84.6% | 15.4% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 57.9% | 42.1% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Missouri State Bears +1 (62-61). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Evansville Purple Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Taylor * | 36 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | +0.0 |
| Ned Cox * | 35 | 5-14 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | -0.3 |
| Colt Ryan * | 34 | 8-19 | 2-4 | 6-7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 12 | -5.2 |
| Egidijus Mockevicius * | 27 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 | +2.3 |
| Lewis Jones * | 22 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +0.1 |
| Adam Wing | 18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -7.1 |
| D.J. Balentine | 15 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -8.9 |
| Jaylon Moore | 7 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -0.8 |
| Ryan Sawvell | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4.9 |
Missouri State Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Marshall * | 36 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 9-11 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 12 | -0.8 |
| Anthony Downing * | 36 | 4-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 3 | +1.4 |
| Gavin Thurman * | 28 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4.6 |
| Dorrian Williams * | 13 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | -5.1 |
| Drew Wilson * | 8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6.7 |
| Nathan Scheer | 29 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | +17.7 |
| Christian Kirk | 24 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 4-5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +6.8 |
| Keith Pickens | 22 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 12 | +6.0 |
| Michael Simpson | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3.7 |
* = starter