Model Predictions
| Model | Portland Pilots | Saint Mary's Gaels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 4.3% | 95.7% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 12.9% | 87.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 13.1% | 86.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 18.1% | 81.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 1.7% | 98.3% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 1.7% | 98.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 14.0% | 86.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Saint Mary's Gaels +35 (77-42). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Portland Pilots
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Rodgers * | 33 | 2-5 | 1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 2 | -21.1 |
| Bryce Pressley * | 33 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 3 | -27.9 |
| Thomas van der Mars * | 29 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 13 | -23.6 |
| Ryan Nicholas * | 28 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -23.9 |
| Kevin Bailey * | 28 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -3 | -19.3 |
| Oskar Reinfelds | 13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | -7.7 |
| Jake Ehlers | 12 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -4.6 |
| Riley Barker | 9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2.7 |
| Korey Thieleke | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -7.0 |
| David Ahern | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2.6 |
| John Bailey | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
Saint Mary's Gaels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Dellavedova * | 25 | 7-12 | 5-9 | 4-4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 14 | +27.9 |
| Stephen Holt * | 25 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | +17.6 |
| Jorden Page * | 25 | 5-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | +19.3 |
| Mitchell Young * | 19 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 4-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +10.5 |
| Brad Waldow * | 15 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +12.8 |
| Beau Levesque | 20 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | +6.4 |
| James Walker III | 17 | 2-8 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +5.7 |
| Jordan Giusti | 14 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | +10.4 |
| Kyle Rowley | 13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | +14.0 |
| Matt Hodgson | 13 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +11.3 |
| Paul McCoy | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +3.7 |
| Eividas Petrulis | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Zach Sanchez | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
* = starter