Model Predictions
| Model | North Texas Mean Green | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.5% | 79.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 37.2% | 62.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 32.3% | 67.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.5% | 62.5% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 25.5% | 74.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 25.1% | 74.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.3% | 69.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +9 (75-66). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
North Texas Mean Green
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Mitchell * | 44 | 6-17 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | -6.5 |
| Alzee Williams * | 42 | 2-10 | 0-1 | 6-8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | -7.8 |
| Jordan Williams * | 39 | 6-15 | 3-7 | 3-4 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 13 | -9.5 |
| Roger Franklin * | 33 | 3-9 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | -2.0 |
| P.J. Hardwick * | 32 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -1.5 |
| Niko Stojiljkovic | 21 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -12.6 |
| Clarke Overlander | 9 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | -3.0 |
| Keith Coleman | 5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1.9 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Finn * | 42 | 3-12 | 2-10 | 6-6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15 | +9.4 |
| Ed Townsel * | 41 | 3-12 | 1-7 | 8-10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 11 | +3.0 |
| Brandon Peterson * | 31 | 0-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | +1.9 |
| Marcus Hooten * | 10 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -4.1 |
| Kendrick Washington | 25 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 6-9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +9.4 |
| Cameron Golden | 23 | 6-13 | 4-9 | 2-6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 8 | +6.9 |
| Rakeem Dickerson | 22 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +0.8 |
| Raeford Worsham | 16 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | +5.0 |
| Kelvin Downs | 15 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | +3.0 |
* = starter