Model Predictions
| Model | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | Southern Utah Thunderbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 29.5% | 70.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.7% | 50.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 41.2% | 58.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 42.4% | 57.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 45.5% | 54.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 45.1% | 54.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 42.3% | 57.7% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Southern Utah Thunderbirds +11 (78-67). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeWayne Russell * | 38 | 2-12 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -5 | -10.9 |
| Gabe Rogers * | 36 | 4-13 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 1 | -5.8 |
| Stallon Saldivar * | 36 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 17 | -11.3 |
| Max Jacobsen * | 26 | 7-10 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 13 | -17.1 |
| Gaellan Bewernick * | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11.5 |
| Michael Dunn | 24 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -3.9 |
| Ephraim Ekanem | 13 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 6-10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 9 | +5.0 |
| Jordyn Martin | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -0.6 |
| Blake Hamilton | 4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -3.2 |
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Stevenett * | 38 | 6-11 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 16 | +14.3 |
| Damon Heuir * | 37 | 9-19 | 3-6 | 6-8 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 10 | +13.2 |
| Jordan Johnson * | 27 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 14 | +5.4 |
| Jayson Cheesman * | 21 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6-10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 | +1.5 |
| Jaren Jeffery * | 10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4.4 |
| Chris Nsenki | 25 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2.7 |
| A.J. Hess | 19 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | -3.8 |
| Cal Hanks | 18 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 10 | +13.8 |
| Tyson Koehler | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Wade Collie | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1.9 |
* = starter