Model Predictions
| Model | Lafayette Leopards | American University Eagles | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 60.3% | 39.7% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 57.3% | 42.7% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 46.7% | 53.3% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 52.1% | 47.9% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.2% | 36.8% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 47.0% | 53.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: American University Eagles +4 (68-64). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Lafayette Leopards
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Johnson * | 36 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -1.1 |
| Seth Hinrichs * | 34 | 5-10 | 4-8 | 4-4 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 17 | -0.5 |
| Bryce Scott * | 32 | 6-11 | 5-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 8 | -18.0 |
| Dan Trist * | 28 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | -10.2 |
| Levi Giese * | 26 | 1-8 | 0-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | -14.4 |
| Joey Ptasinski | 29 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | -21.7 |
| Zach Rufer | 11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -2.7 |
| Nathaniel Musters | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.7 |
American University Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Schoof * | 40 | 4-6 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +15.8 |
| Stephen Lumpkins * | 36 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 20 | +13.7 |
| Blake Jolivette * | 34 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +17.2 |
| Daniel Munoz * | 33 | 2-9 | 0-3 | 8-8 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3.7 |
| Tony Wroblicky * | 22 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | +13.5 |
| Jesse Reed | 15 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +7.3 |
| Mike Bersch | 11 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +8.6 |
| Kyle Kager | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7.6 |
* = starter