Model Predictions
| Model | Denver Pioneers | UTSA Roadrunners | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 78.1% | 21.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 76.5% | 23.5% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 72.6% | 27.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 73.7% | 26.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 96.5% | 3.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 96.6% | 3.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 72.1% | 27.9% | - | ✓ |
Actual: UTSA Roadrunners -14 (57-71). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Denver Pioneers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce O'Neale * | 31 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 | +20.8 |
| Brett Olson * | 31 | 6-11 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 9 | +14.6 |
| Jalen Love * | 29 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +18.3 |
| Chase Hallam * | 28 | 3-10 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 10 | +0.9 |
| Chris Udofia * | 26 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 11 | +15.3 |
| Cam Griffin | 21 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 13 | +0.8 |
| Marcus Byrd | 11 | 4-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | -0.9 |
| Blake Foeman | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7.9 |
| Nate Engesser | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | -9.8 |
| Bryant Rucker | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -3 | -10.2 |
| Jake Logan | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Dom Samac | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -8.3 |
UTSA Roadrunners
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kannon Burrage * | 37 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 7-9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 10 | -4.1 |
| Michael Hale III * | 36 | 3-8 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 4 | -2.4 |
| Larry Wilkins * | 32 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 | +1.2 |
| Jordan Sims * | 31 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -13.0 |
| Hyjii Thomas * | 26 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -17.7 |
| Edrico McGregor | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -3.5 |
| Tank Mayberry | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - |
| Tyler Wood | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2.1 |
| A.J. Price | 4 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +0.3 |
| Dante Willis | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - |
* = starter