Model Predictions
| Model | Idaho State Bengals | Northern Colorado Bears | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 20.9% | 79.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 40.2% | 59.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 33.1% | 66.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 31.6% | 68.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 19.8% | 80.2% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 19.4% | 80.6% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Northern Colorado Bears +15 (78-63). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Idaho State Bengals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Hansen * | 30 | 3-10 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | -21.7 |
| Andre Hatchett * | 29 | 4-9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | -19.0 |
| Melvin Morgan * | 28 | 5-12 | 3-7 | 5-6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 8 | -30.2 |
| Tomas Sanchez | 29 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -14.2 |
| Neveij Walters | 22 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 15 | - |
| Nnamdi Ezenwa | 18 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | - |
| Sherrod Baldwin | 14 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | -2.6 |
| Ayibakuro Preh | 12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -13.1 |
| Nick Mason | 10 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +5.7 |
| Jakub Kusmieruk | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +2.9 |
| Dejan Kostur | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +8.0 |
Northern Colorado Bears
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Barden * | 30 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10 | +16.6 |
| Tevin Svihovec * | 30 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +18.5 |
| Tim Huskisson * | 25 | 5-9 | 3-4 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 | +16.0 |
| Tate Unruh * | 23 | 5-7 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 16 | +20.6 |
| Connor Osborne * | 17 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +19.4 |
| Paul Garnica | 21 | 6-10 | 6-8 | 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 16 | +7.4 |
| James Davis Jr. | 20 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 7 | +1.2 |
| Emmanuel Addo | 17 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +3.7 |
| Greg Tucker | 10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -7.4 |
| Brendan Keane | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6.1 |
| Bryce Douvier | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4.2 |
| Xzaivier James | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.0 |
* = starter