Model Predictions
| Model | Morehead State Eagles | Belmont Bruins | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 7.1% | 92.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 18.2% | 81.8% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 16.5% | 83.5% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 32.4% | 67.6% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 3.9% | 96.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 3.8% | 96.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 16.6% | 83.4% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Belmont Bruins +19 (93-74). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Morehead State Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angelo Warner * | 33 | 6-13 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | -10.1 |
| Drew Kelly * | 31 | 4-11 | 2-3 | 4-7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 13 | -9.7 |
| Devon Atkinson * | 28 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 5-6 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 10 | -9.5 |
| Bakari Turner * | 21 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 6-10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 6 | -5.4 |
| Chad Posthumus * | 5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5.2 |
| Bruce Reed | 17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -4.4 |
| Jason Holmes | 15 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | +1.9 |
| Kahlil Owens | 13 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -6.2 |
| Jarrett Stokes | 12 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -1.1 |
| Taariq Muhammad | 9 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -5.2 |
| Milton Chavis | 8 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -3.0 |
| Cordell James | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1.7 |
| Jourdan Stickler | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2.4 |
Belmont Bruins
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Mann * | 31 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 21 | +19.0 |
| Kerron Johnson * | 29 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 19-21 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 25 | 24 | +15.1 |
| Ian Clark * | 27 | 6-9 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 16 | +13.7 |
| Blake Jenkins * | 26 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 12 | +7.7 |
| Trevor Noack * | 20 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | +8.8 |
| Reece Chamberlain | 19 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | +2.0 |
| Brandon Baker | 17 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | +5.1 |
| Adam Barnes | 9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +0.6 |
| Jeff Laidig | 8 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -1.9 |
| Craig Bradshaw | 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -6.6 |
| Holden Mobley | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1.4 |
| Chad Lang | 3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3.3 |
| Spencer Turner | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3.0 |
* = starter