Model Predictions
| Model | South Alabama Jaguars | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 28.9% | 71.1% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 47.3% | 52.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 38.0% | 62.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 42.9% | 57.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 30.1% | 69.9% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +12 (74-62). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
South Alabama Jaguars
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augustine Rubit * | 34 | 3-11 | 0-0 | 12-12 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 19 | +2.9 |
| Barrington Stevens * | 33 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | -3.1 |
| Dre Conner * | 25 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | -2.1 |
| Mychal Ammons * | 23 | 3-13 | 0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 | -8.1 |
| Antoine Allen * | 16 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -5.0 |
| Trey Anderson | 27 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 1 | -5.8 |
| Javier Carter | 25 | 5-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | -9.6 |
| Wendell Wright | 16 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -8.0 |
| Viktor Juricek | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1.2 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Finn * | 38 | 4-11 | 2-6 | 8-10 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 18 | +13.6 |
| Brandon Peterson * | 31 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | +6.7 |
| Ed Townsel * | 30 | 4-9 | 1-4 | 2-5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 6 | +0.9 |
| Marcus Hooten * | 24 | 3-12 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 3 | +1.7 |
| Rakeem Dickerson | 28 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 14-16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 14 | +1.6 |
| Kendrick Washington | 19 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -3.9 |
| Kelvin Downs | 18 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +8.2 |
| Cameron Golden | 12 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +6.6 |
* = starter