Model Predictions
| Model | Sacramento State Hornets | Southern Utah Thunderbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 34.0% | 66.0% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 56.2% | 43.8% | - | ✗ |
| Margin | 50.3% | 49.7% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 62.7% | 37.3% | - | ✗ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 63.8% | 36.2% | - | ✗ |
| Log Adjusted | 63.8% | 36.2% | - | ✗ |
| Points Off/Def | 52.6% | 47.4% | - | ✗ |
Actual: Southern Utah Thunderbirds +12 (79-67). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Sacramento State Hornets
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikh McKinney * | 37 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 10-11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 11 | -7.6 |
| Joe Eberhard * | 36 | 2-10 | 0-4 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -4.0 |
| John Dickson * | 27 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 7-8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | -16.9 |
| Julian Demalleville * | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -9.7 |
| Konner Veteto * | 6 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | +0.4 |
| Dylan Garrity | 33 | 3-10 | 2-4 | 10-11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 11 | -3.3 |
| Cody Dempsey | 19 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Jackson Carbajal | 13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.6 |
| Joey Quigley | 12 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8.2 |
| Jordan Salley | 5 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +6.2 |
| Dreon Barlett | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
| Kendell Groom | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.0 |
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Stevenett * | 34 | 8-13 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 15 | +11.6 |
| Damon Heuir * | 34 | 6-17 | 3-7 | 13-14 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 24 | +15.5 |
| Jordan Johnson * | 26 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +13.3 |
| Jayson Cheesman * | 22 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | +7.1 |
| Jaren Jeffery * | 15 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -8.2 |
| Wade Collie | 32 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 2-4 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | +17.2 |
| Cal Hanks | 19 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 9 | -3.2 |
| A.J. Hess | 13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Tyson Koehler | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| John Renfro | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +0.2 |
| Zach Ghormley | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Drake Thomas | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3.8 |
| Chris Nsenki | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.1 |
| Matt Gardner | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter