Model Predictions
| Model | Illinois Fighting Illini | Michigan State Spartans | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 36.2% | 63.8% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 26.9% | 73.1% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 23.1% | 76.9% | +6.6 | ✓ (1.6 off) |
| Pythagorean | 43.2% | 56.8% | - | ✓ |
| Efficiency | 4.8% | 95.2% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 29.2% | 70.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 28.4% | 71.6% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Michigan State Spartans +5 (80-75). Predictions use season-end ratings.
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.J. Richardson * | 38 | 4-12 | 3-8 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 8 | - |
| T. Abrams * | 31 | 4-12 | 2-6 | 6-6 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 17 | - |
| N. Egwu * | 25 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -2 | - |
| B. Paul * | 24 | 5-10 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 6 | - |
| S. McLaurin * | 24 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 8 | - |
| J. Bertrand | 26 | 3-7 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | - |
| M. Henry | 21 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 9 | - |
| T. Griffey | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | - |
| M. La Tulip | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Michigan State Spartans
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Payne * | 38 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 | - |
| K. Appling * | 38 | 7-12 | 2-4 | 8-12 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 26 | - |
| B. Dawson * | 29 | 4-5 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 15 | - |
| G. Harris * | 25 | 5-7 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 7 | - |
| A. Gauna * | 5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| D. Nix | 24 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| D. Valentine | 19 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15 | - |
| T. Trice II | 11 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
| R. Byrd | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| M. Costello | 4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter