Model Predictions
| Model | Fresno State Bulldogs | Air Force Falcons | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 17.1% | 82.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 29.7% | 70.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 36.0% | 64.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 35.9% | 64.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 33.4% | 66.6% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 33.6% | 66.4% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 34.5% | 65.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Air Force Falcons +12 (62-50). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Fresno State Bulldogs
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Johnson * | 34 | 5-12 | 0-3 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | -20.9 |
| Jerry Brown * | 27 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9.3 |
| Kevin Foster * | 18 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | -12.5 |
| Marvelle Harris * | 18 | 0-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | -10.3 |
| Aaron Anderson * | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -12.8 |
| Allen Huddleston | 29 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4.8 |
| Kevin Olekaibe | 24 | 6-12 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 12 | +2.5 |
| Robert Upshaw | 16 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -1.6 |
| Garrett Johnson | 12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +5.2 |
| Tanner Giddings | 11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +6.1 |
Air Force Falcons
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Broekhuis * | 35 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 3-5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | +11.0 |
| Michael Lyons * | 35 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 8 | +7.2 |
| Todd Fletcher * | 35 | 8-11 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 14 | +11.6 |
| Mike Fitzgerald * | 32 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | +16.8 |
| DeLovell Earls * | 19 | 2-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | +0.6 |
| Kyle Green | 17 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | -0.1 |
| Justin Hammonds | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | +4.6 |
| Tre Coggins | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +3.8 |
| Marek Olesinski | 4 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Kamryn Williams | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -0.1 |
* = starter