Model Predictions
| Model | Pepperdine Waves | Saint Mary's Gaels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 5.4% | 94.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 19.1% | 80.9% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 16.2% | 83.8% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 31.3% | 68.7% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 4.2% | 95.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 4.1% | 95.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 17.8% | 82.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Saint Mary's Gaels +12 (84-72). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Pepperdine Waves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Baker * | 35 | 8-15 | 1-2 | 3-5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 12 | +4.7 |
| Lorne Jackson * | 32 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 6 | +1.4 |
| Nikolas Skouen * | 23 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 | -8.7 |
| Jett Raines * | 19 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10 | +1.4 |
| Moriba De Freitas * | 16 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | +3.2 |
| Atif Russell | 27 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +14.9 |
| Stacy Davis | 26 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | +7.3 |
| Jan Maehlen | 16 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -5.5 |
| Austin Mills | 3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -1.9 |
| Manny Ochenje | 2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +3.2 |
| Allen Stevens | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Saint Mary's Gaels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Dellavedova * | 34 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | +1.7 |
| Stephen Holt * | 32 | 4-10 | 3-6 | 6-7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 13 | +1.4 |
| Brad Waldow * | 22 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 10 | +4.3 |
| Jorden Page * | 20 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -4.8 |
| Mitchell Young * | 20 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 6-7 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 14 | +4.9 |
| Beau Levesque | 28 | 9-11 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 15 | -1.2 |
| Jordan Giusti | 20 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | +5.8 |
| James Walker III | 12 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | -7.3 |
| Kyle Rowley | 8 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -12.8 |
| Matt Hodgson | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Eividas Petrulis | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | -4.2 |
| Zach Sanchez | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4.1 |
| Paul McCoy | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.3 |
* = starter