Model Predictions
| Model | Evansville Purple Aces | Illinois State Redbirds | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.1% | 64.9% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 49.3% | 50.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.1% | 68.9% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 43.7% | 56.3% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 24.2% | 75.8% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 23.8% | 76.2% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 31.0% | 69.0% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Illinois State Redbirds +5 (67-62). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Evansville Purple Aces
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colt Ryan * | 36 | 6-15 | 0-3 | 5-6 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 7 | +2.1 |
| Ned Cox * | 34 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 6-6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 14 | +10.0 |
| Lewis Jones * | 29 | 2-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -10.2 |
| Troy Taylor * | 26 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 14 | -2.2 |
| Egidijus Mockevicius * | 13 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -17.1 |
| D.J. Balentine | 24 | 6-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +5.6 |
| Jaylon Moore | 20 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +15.8 |
| Adam Wing | 11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +11.7 |
| Ryan Sawvell | 7 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +6.0 |
Illinois State Redbirds
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackie Carmichael * | 36 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 8-12 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 31 | +9.5 |
| Tyler Brown * | 33 | 5-13 | 1-4 | 12-17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 14 | +3.7 |
| John Wilkins * | 29 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -2.4 |
| Johnny Hill * | 18 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -5.2 |
| Kaza Keane | 26 | 2-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | -0.3 |
| Bryant Allen | 18 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | -8.3 |
| Jon Ekey | 15 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -6.6 |
| Anthony Cousin | 14 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -8.7 |
| Nick Zeisloft | 11 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +9.9 |
* = starter