Model Predictions
| Model | Florida Atlantic Owls | Arkansas State Red Wolves | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 25.7% | 74.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 39.4% | 60.6% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 31.3% | 68.7% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 34.1% | 65.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 20.5% | 79.5% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 20.2% | 79.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 30.2% | 69.8% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Arkansas State Red Wolves +25 (63-38). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Florida Atlantic Owls
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Morrow | 29 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 11 | -11.7 |
| Kelvin Penn | 29 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -11.0 |
| Greg Gantt | 26 | 6-10 | 0-3 | 1-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0 | -18.3 |
| Jordan McCoy | 25 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -11.8 |
| Stefan Moody | 23 | 1-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -1 | -14.1 |
| Dragan Sekelja | 19 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -16.8 |
| Jackson Trapp | 19 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3 | -10.9 |
| Pablo Bertone | 14 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 3-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | -9.6 |
| Andre Mattison | 7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -7.9 |
| Cavon Baker | 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | -4.2 |
| Javier Lacunza | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -0.6 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Hooten | 34 | 5-9 | 3-3 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +20.1 |
| Ed Townsel | 32 | 2-9 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +19.3 |
| Trey Finn | 32 | 3-10 | 1-7 | 4-4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 11 | +24.6 |
| Rakeem Dickerson | 27 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | +21.4 |
| Brandon Peterson | 27 | 6-9 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 19 | +13.3 |
| Cameron Golden | 23 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | +4.3 |
| Kelvin Downs | 22 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 4 | +12.6 |
| Kristopher Brown | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Jordan Weaver | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Josh Pierre | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | - |
* = starter