Model Predictions
| Model | UTSA Roadrunners | Idaho Vandals | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 18.7% | 81.3% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 33.7% | 66.3% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 27.6% | 72.4% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 37.1% | 62.9% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 16.9% | 83.1% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 16.9% | 83.1% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 26.8% | 73.2% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Idaho Vandals +4 (74-70). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
UTSA Roadrunners
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Hale III * | 40 | 6-14 | 5-11 | 4-6 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +0.4 |
| Kannon Burrage * | 38 | 5-15 | 3-7 | 3-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | -1.5 |
| Hyjii Thomas * | 36 | 3-10 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | -5.0 |
| Jordan Sims * | 36 | 3-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 13 | -2.9 |
| Larry Wilkins * | 25 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | +6.5 |
| Edrico McGregor | 19 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8 | -8.3 |
| Tyler Wood | 6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Idaho Vandals
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Nums | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Madison * | 38 | 6-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 6 | -0.7 |
| Kyle Barone * | 35 | 10-10 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 36 | +5.1 |
| Mike McChristian * | 32 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 | +0.5 |
| Connor Hill * | 30 | 4-11 | 4-9 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +4.0 |
| Robert Harris Jr. * | 25 | 2-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -1 | - |
| Mansa Habeeb | 14 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | +3.6 |
| Joe Kammerer | 8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2.5 |
| Denzel Douglas | 8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -6.5 |
| Matt Borton | 6 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1.8 |
| Wendell Faines | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3.5 |
* = starter