Model Predictions
| Model | San Diego Toreros | Saint Mary's Gaels | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 10.5% | 89.5% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 22.3% | 77.7% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 19.0% | 81.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 35.6% | 64.4% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 5.3% | 94.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 5.2% | 94.8% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 20.5% | 79.5% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Saint Mary's Gaels +33 (81-48). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
San Diego Toreros
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Dee * | 26 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | - |
| Chris Manresa * | 21 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - |
| Christopher Anderson * | 19 | 1-6 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | - |
| Ken Rancifer * | 19 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | - |
| Simi Fajemisin * | 11 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | - |
| Cameron Miles | 28 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 6-6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | - |
| Jito Kok | 20 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | - |
| Mike Davis | 19 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 | - |
| John Sinis | 11 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
| Dennis Kramer | 10 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | - |
| Trey Guidry | 9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - |
| Keith Stackhouse | 7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - |
Saint Mary's Gaels
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Dellavedova * | 28 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 16 | - |
| Stephen Holt * | 23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | - |
| Brad Waldow * | 20 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 13 | - |
| Jorden Page * | 20 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | - |
| Mitchell Young * | 18 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | - |
| Beau Levesque | 21 | 7-10 | 2-3 | 4-8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 18 | - |
| Jordan Giusti | 20 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | - |
| James Walker III | 16 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | - |
| Kyle Rowley | 12 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 10 | - |
| Paul McCoy | 10 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | - |
| Matt Hodgson | 7 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | - |
| Eividas Petrulis | 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | - |
* = starter