Model Predictions
| Model | Belmont Bruins | Morehead State Eagles | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 82.4% | 17.6% | - | ✓ |
| Bradley-Terry | 79.8% | 20.2% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 77.0% | 23.0% | - | ✓ |
| Pythagorean | 69.0% | 31.0% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 97.3% | 2.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 97.3% | 2.7% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 75.7% | 24.3% | - | ✓ |
Actual: Morehead State Eagles -1 (63-64). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Belmont Bruins
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Clark * | 34 | 7-10 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20 | 12 | -18.0 |
| Trevor Noack * | 33 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 0-1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | -20.7 |
| J.J. Mann * | 31 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 10 | -5.9 |
| Kerron Johnson * | 31 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 5-8 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 6 | -9.1 |
| Blake Jenkins * | 18 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | -11.1 |
| Reece Chamberlain | 20 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 3-5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 5 | -13.6 |
| Brandon Baker | 10 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2.4 |
| Craig Bradshaw | 7 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | +1.2 |
| Jeff Laidig | 6 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Adam Barnes | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -7.0 |
| Holden Mobley | 4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4.4 |
| Chad Lang | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.3 |
Morehead State Eagles
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bakari Turner * | 32 | 5-12 | 1-5 | 5-7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 5 | +11.2 |
| Drew Kelly * | 31 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | +18.6 |
| Chad Posthumus * | 27 | 5-11 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | +20.7 |
| Devon Atkinson * | 23 | 2-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | +14.9 |
| Angelo Warner * | 14 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | +15.6 |
| Milton Chavis | 23 | 4-9 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | +10.9 |
| Taariq Muhammad | 18 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | +3.1 |
| Bruce Reed | 12 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -1.9 |
| Jarrett Stokes | 10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2.1 |
| Kahlil Owens | 8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | -0.7 |
| Jason Holmes | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
* = starter