Model Predictions
| Model | Jacksonville Dolphins | East Tennessee State Buccaneers | Spread | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | 35.0% | 65.0% | - | ✗ |
| Bradley-Terry | 51.0% | 49.0% | - | ✓ |
| Margin | 44.2% | 55.8% | - | ✗ |
| Pythagorean | 63.9% | 36.1% | - | ✓ |
| Adjusted Efficiency | 56.3% | 43.7% | - | ✓ |
| Log Adjusted | 56.1% | 43.9% | - | ✓ |
| Points Off/Def | 46.1% | 53.9% | - | ✗ |
Actual: East Tennessee State Buccaneers -3 (80-83). Win probabilities: out-of-sample forecasts from the weekly fit before the game, the same forecasts as the model pages.
RAPM GS requires a reviewed game-score run and a qualified player and game match. A dash means the score is unavailable.
Jacksonville Dolphins
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith McDougald * | 30 | 8-16 | 3-8 | 4-4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 14 | -4.0 |
| Kordario Fleming * | 26 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | +3.8 |
| Russell Powell * | 25 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 13 | +3.3 |
| Glenn Powell * | 25 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | +9.3 |
| Jarvis Haywood * | 19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -12.4 |
| Javon Dawson | 24 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 5-6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 15 | -12.6 |
| Dylan Fritsch | 23 | 6-10 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 11 | +3.3 |
| Evin Graham | 16 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -9.9 |
| Jeremy Bogus | 7 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +6.8 |
| Tyler Alderman | 5 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -10.1 |
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
| Player | MIN | FG | 3PT | FT | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO | PTS | Numbers | RAPM GS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kinard Gadsden-Gilliard * | 40 | 3-10 | 1-1 | 8-8 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -8.3 |
| Lester Wilson * | 40 | 8-16 | 3-10 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 7 | -3.0 |
| Jarvis Jones * | 40 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 8 | +5.2 |
| Hunter Harris * | 20 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -5.0 |
| Petey McClain * | 6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -3.7 |
| Rashawn Rembert | 31 | 6-10 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8.6 |
| John Walton III | 21 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | +0.7 |
| Mario Stramaglia | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4.9 |
* = starter